Somaliland Needs New Political Direction
 

It should never be forgotten that Somaliland unity was founded on the principle of truth and justice for all Somalilanders and to defend those who were discriminated and disfranchised. Before now, we have one government system without competing parties. Now we know things have changed and we have several political parties for the first time in our country namely, UDUB, KULMIYE and UCID.

Although the government party-(UDUB) is also one of the parties, it shows that this party has the strength and the resources that the other parties are not have at this moment, because they are using government resources.In order to have fair elections, this has to be divided among all three Political parties fairly and squarely.

Let us ask ourselves,when the smoke clears and the dust settles, we are left with this: Voters reward(punish)incumbents if they believe that those candidates are likely to do well(poor) in the up-coming elections, in terms of economic future, although voters look to the past to make much of that judgment and focus much more on the performance of the national economy than the region and the districts of their own personal finances.

These are by no means findings without significance , but they do not take us much further than our forecasting steps in understanding the Somaliland political events of the last 7 years and how they may be related to the radically different social and economy of the past era. Indeed, the timeless and classless nature of these findings intrinsically limits their utility in explaining substantive political change in Somaliland. All they can tell us is that the incumbent benefits at the margin from voters' positive economic assessments- a tendency that tells us nothing about the difference b/w the politics in Riyales' time and previous government of Egal and Abdulrahman Tuurs' era. And yet both politics and economics have changed profoundly since then. Surely, a contemporary economics of voting needs to reflect and help explain theses changes.

What to do? One approach is to split samples in the individual years by a measure of class. Then steps can be separately estimated on the split samples and coefficients on economic assessment variables compared. This method produces some positive results and represents an improvement over the classless nature of standard economic voting samples. The recent server malfunctions needs to solve it by the date that was specified which is June 27, 2009. If it is not solved by that time, the elections has to go on without server results so there will no more excuses on delaying the elections again. The election set date will be on September 27, 2009 and we hope this will be the last date of holding the Presidential election. This is the only way that Somaliland will sell their democratic recognition to the rest of the World and to earn the respect of their Citizens.

A key problem remains, however, by focusing on one election at a time, this approach is not well suited to explaining political changes over time, and the relationship of economic shifts to these changes. Yet this, as I have argued, is perhaps the crucial lacuna within the economic voting literature.

One method that potentially solves this problem is the pooling of survey data across several different elections to examine changes in extending presidential terms and fair electoral voting methods. The first set that needs to look at the vote is the incumbent party in presidential elections and follows up on the work of the other political parties cited earlier.

We need to start by examining the class comparisons attempted for individual years(described above) to see if the evidence of a class difference in reactions to economic assessments could be detected in a pooled model. All the news is not bad, People have the capacity to learn, and attitudes can change. Although those who are forming the different types of political parties learned to distrust the current government and avoid collective action. Surveys indicate that education is positively correlated with support for democracy and smooth transition, The challenge is convince somalilanders that political participation will be rewarded. Training a new generation of political leaders who are responsive to public opinion is a crucial tool for changing popular attitudes toward their political system.

In conclusion, Somaliland has been recognized when of the best African Democratic country, mainly due to establishing functioning government, political stability, holding previous presidential, parliamentarian, municipality elections,government institutions and so far. But it looks that the multiple presidential extension terms has caused alarming and more distrust among Somalilanders and International Communities. The recent Mediation between the Political Parties and the Somaliland President was also another drama that causes more distant and unwillingness to cooperate this critical moment that the country has entered and the people of Somaliland still waiting what will happen next since the President has declared that he will not be signing the Mediation Agreement.

I believe strongly, by improving the skills of political leaders(President and his cabinets), both Houses and political parties in new democracies will increase the prospects that democratic system will survive and enhance the quality of our people and our country.Leadership training is not likely to have immediate effects at the top levels of the political system (Presidents and his cabinets), nor is it likely to bring cure to the ill-feeling of other major political parties and Somaliland political cultures. Rather, it will have its greatest impact on the civil societies of new democracies.


Also, for the sake of the 18Th anniversary of Somaliland Independence day, the Somaliland Political Leaders need to put a side their political differences and unite the country to celebrate the most important day of Somaliland Independence and finalized the on-going political saga once for all. This means, signing the Mediation Agreement and move the country to have fair elections on September 27,2009.

 

 


Best Regards,

Dr.Shacabi