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Meles
Proposes a Two - State Solution for Somalia
According to a source with intimate knowledge about the affairs of
the hilltop palace of Meles Zenawi, the prime minister of Ethiopia,
who is not willing to be quoted due to the sensitivity of the issue,
Meles has commissioned a committee of Somali specialists early this
year to come up with a strategic analysis and a menu of options with
respect to Ethiopian national interest towards Somalia. The
committee chaired by Ethiopia´s foremost expert on Somalia, Dr.
Alemu Tekede, minister of state for foreign affairs, comprised
senior officials of the ruling EPRDF, several military generals and
security and intelligence officers.
According to the source, after five long months of deliberations,
the committee submitted to Meles a well-thought-out "red" dossier
containing confidential policy proposals in last August. The
committee of experts persuasively argued that the reconstitution of
Somalia to its pre-1991 status would not serve the national interest
of Ethiopia. Furthermore, the committee emphasized the possibility
of landlocked Ethiopia becoming "sandwiched" between two hostile
countries, i.e. Eritrea in the north and Somalia in the south,
underlining Ethiopia´s vulnerability to gruesome civil-war and
disintegration if the current Ethiopian efforts in Somalia fail and
the country fall back to the hand of ousted Islamic forces. The
committee further emphasized the possibility of Ethiopian Muslims
becoming influenced or radicalized by Somalia´s Islamists which
could ultimately ignite a devastating religious war in the country.
The committee recommended the following propositions:
1 A two-state solution for Somalia along the pre-independence
colonial boundaries. The committee suggested the Ethiopian
government play a lead role in advocating for the international
recognition of the breakaway republic of Somaliland.
2 Southern Somalia (former Italian Somaliland) to be divided into
four federal regions in line with ethnic based Ethiopian federal
system, namely, Puntland, Hawiyeland, Jubbaland and Rahanweinland.
3 The Somali region of Ethiopia to be "isolated" from the rest of
Somalia, and limit to the extent possible commercial and traffic
links between the Somali region and Somalia.
According to the source, Meles has discussed the proposed two state
solutions with Rayaale Kahin, the president of Somaliland, Abdillahi
Yusuf, the president of the TFG, and with Mohamed Gedi, the prime
minister of the TFG, in separate meetings held in September in Addis
Ababa. While Mr. Yusuf rejected any discussion on the subject, Mr.
Rayaale has praised the initiative and committed to deploy ten
thousand Somaliland troops in Mogadishu to work with Ethiopian
military forces to help quell the growing insurgency in the Somali
capital. Mr. Rayaale also assured Meles that Somaliland will help
Ethiopia in subduing the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), a
Somali rebel group based in the Somali region of Ethiopia.
According to the source, Mr. Gedi began to entertain the two-state
notion after the rift between him and Mr. Yusuf reached to a point
of no-return, though he reportedly rebuffed the idea in the initial
discussion back in September. The relationship between Yusuf and
Meles has deteriorated since, according to this knowledgeable
source.
Subsequent to the September discussion between Meles and Rayaale, a
Somaliland delegation comprising ministers of foreign affairs and
finance and chief of staff of Somaliland army held several meetings
in Addis Ababa with Dr. Tekede and the chief of staff of Ethiopian
National Defense Forces (ENDF).
The two sides discussed the role Somaliland can play in quelling the
growing insurgency in Mogadishu and part of the Somali region of
Ethiopia, deployment of Ethiopian troops to Berbera to protect
Ethiopian military hardware coming through the Somaliland controlled
Red Sea port and Ethiopia´s support to Rayaale´s re-election for
another five years term. The Somaliland delegation highlighted the
fear of Somaliland drifting towards Eritrea if the KULMIYE
opposition party wins the presidential election scheduled to take
place mid next year. The Somaliland delegation also tabled a number
of evidences accusing Puntland of providing sanctuary to ONLF and
Oromo dissident groups.
The Somaliland delegation has agreed to send an advance team of
military officers to Mogadishu to pave the way for the eventual
deployment of Somaliland troops in Mogadishu and to extradite to
Ethiopia members of the Ogaden clan residing in the territory of
Somaliland. Ethiopian government believes that the ONLF is drawing
support from Ogaden businessmen and some segments of the Issaq clan
who largely hail from the Togdheer region of Somaliland. In light of
these discussions, Somaliland was given the green light to secure
the borders of the former British Somaliland.
According to the source, Meles has taken into confidence members of
the Ethiopian opposition parties who have fully endorsed the
proposed two-state solution for Somalia.
With the blessing of the Bush Administration, Ethiopian troops
invaded Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia in last December.
They were successful in overthrowing the radical Islamist dominated
regime of the UIC and in installing divided and unpopular TFG.
His troops bogged down in the messy quagmire of Mogadishu where the
remnants of the ousted Union of Islamic Court (UIC) continues to
wage Iraq-style bloody insurgency, Meles is understandably
frustrated with the apparent failure of the internationally
recognized but toothless fledgling Transitional Federal Government (TFG)
in pacifying the tumultuous Somali capital. The Somali experts in
Addis Ababa view the two-state solution as a vital long-term
strategy for Ethiopia´s national interest.
Tamrat Nega
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