Analysts Say Somalia Peace Deal Too Weak

As fighting rages on in the
Somali capital Mogadishu, international stakeholders in Somalia are
urging the country's transitional federal government and an
Islamist-led opposition faction to implement a cease-fire agreement
outlined in a recently-signed peace deal. But as VOA Correspondent
Alisha Ryu reports from our East Africa Bureau in Nairobi, the deal
is now viewed as being too weak to produce any results.
Last Tuesday, the United Nations special envoy to Somalia opened a
conference in Djibouti attended by a number of stakeholders. They
included representatives from Britain, Canada, Italy, Norway,
Sweden, the United States, the African Union, the League of Arab
States, and the European Union.
Known collectively as the International Contact Group, the group
urged the two principle signatories of the June 9 Somali peace pact
to implement a comprehensive cease-fire to allow a timely withdrawal
of Ethiopian troops from Somalia and the deployment of an
international stabilization force.
But the Somalia analyst for International Crisis Group, Rashid Abdi,
points out a critical flaw in the peace pact, which Abdi and other
observers say is at the heart of the problems confronting the
international community.
"You have essentially a deal between two weak parties, that is the
transitional federal government and an ARS faction, which has very
little control on the ground," said Abdi. "I think the hope among
the members of the international community who is spearheading this
process is that the more this process continues and gains momentum,
the more attractive it will become for the moderate factions within
the militant groups to come on board."
The ARS faction Abdi refers to is a faction led by Sheik Sharif
Sheik Ahmed, the moderate Islamist leader who signed the peace deal
on behalf of the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-liberation of
Somalia opposition group.
The alliance has long demanded the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops,
who intervened in Somalia in late 2006 to end the six-month rule of
the Islamic Courts Union. Ethiopia then installed Somalia's
western-friendly interim government in its place. Ahmed and other
prominent leaders of the courts encouraged a violent
anti-government, anti-Ethiopian insurgency in Somalia.
The fighting between insurgents and Ethiopian and Somali government
troops killed thousands of people and displaced more than one
million others, creating the worst humanitarian crisis since the
fall of the last government in 1991. Both sides were accused of
committing war crimes against civilians.
Ahmed and his supporters in the ARS agreed to open indirect talks
with the Somali government to find a way to end the insurgency. In a
recent interview with VOA, Ahmed explained why he agreed to
negotiate.
He says ordinary Somalis needed peace and they supported his view
that negotiating was the best way to achieve it.
But Ahmed's conciliatory stance was bitterly opposed by hardliners
in the ARS, led by Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys. The hardliners in
Asmara and their allies in Somalia, including a homegrown militant
al-Qaida-linked group called the Shabab, said the insurgency would
continue until all Ethiopian troops left Somali soil. They also
warned the international community not to send foreign peacekeepers
to Somalia.
Since June, insurgent attacks on Ethiopian troops and African Union
peacekeepers have soared, prompting the U.N. Security Council to
announce that no U.N. peacekeepers would be sent to Somalia until
the security situation there improved.
Meanwhile, news that Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed was negotiating with
the Ethiopian-backed government shocked and confused many supporters
of the ousted Islamic Courts Union. Many viewed the move as a
betrayal of Islam and Somali nationalism.
Abdi says by the time Ahmed formally signed the peace pact last
month, his credibility as an opposition leader was being openly
questioned.
"He enjoys some support but that does not mean the overwhelming
number of people who have arms actually listen to him. And in the
last few months, he has lost a considerable amount of authority. So,
to expect Sheik Sharif on his own to pull off a cease-fire, I think,
is unrealistic," added Abdi.
The situation within Somalia's transitional federal government is
equally unsettled.
A rift between President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Nur
Hassan Hussein, which erupted in July over the firing of Mogadishu
Mayor Mohamed Dheere has only deepened in recent weeks. One Somali
parliament member tells VOA that the political in-fighting inside
the TFG has left the government existing only on paper and Ethiopia
is becoming increasingly frustrated that its military has to bear
the burden of protecting it.
An independent U.S.-based Somalia observer Michael Weinstein argues
that although there have been growing disagreements among factions
in the Islamist movement, the chaos inside the Somali government has
been far worse.
He says that has allowed insurgents to re-establish Islamist control
in many parts of the country.
"They are using this window of opportunity very well to provide
security, settle clan differences, institute [Islamic law] Sharia,
which is rooting their power like they never rooted in 2006. They
are in control of more than half of south-central Somalia," said
Weinstein. "Why should they negotiate with anyone? Nobody is going
to be able to displace them. The Ethiopians are on the ropes. The
TFG is incapable of defending itself. Consequences of it will be a
consolidation of the Islamist insurgency on the ground."
The peace conference that opened in Djibouti last week ended three
days later without a cease-fire agreement.
There has been no word from the International Contact Group whether
the talks will resume at a later time.
Source:VOA
|