Analysis: Somalia
crisis stalemated by Ethiopia
By ELIZABETH A. KENNEDY
Associated Press Writer
NAIROBI, Kenya After nearly 20 years of violent chaos, Islamic
extremism and failed peace talks, impoverished Somalia might seem to
have hit rock-bottom. But things are getting worse. The crisis is
exceeding even the direst scenarios laid out nearly two years ago,
when troops from neighboring Ethiopia arrived to oust a radical
Islamic militia and support the Western-backed government.
The troops, whom many Somalis consider an occupying force, are seen
by some as a catalyst for the violence rather than a cure.
"The nature of the crisis is much more dangerous now," Ken Menkhaus,
a Somalia expert at Davidson College in North Carolina, told The
Associated Press. "The level of indiscriminate violence is worse
than at any time."
The Ethiopian regime says that it wants to withdraw, but its
opponents say it has calculated that an open-ended occupation of
Somalia is better than having an Islamist regime next door.
"The Ethiopians will make it impossible for the Islamists," said
Daud Aweys, a Nairobi-based Somalia analyst. "The Ethiopians are
more powerful, and they have more weapons."
Meanwhile, the result is a stalemate, seemingly impervious to
U.N.-brokered peace talks, international pressure and even the daily
carnage in Mogadishu, the capital. The Somali government would
likely crumble without Ethiopia's muscle, but al-Shabab, a radical
group at the heart of the insurgency, refuses to negotiate as long
as the Ethiopians remain.
The United States worries that Somalia could be a terrorist breeding
ground, particularly since Osama bin Laden declared his support for
the Islamists. It accuses al-Shabab of harboring the al-Qaida-linked
terrorists who allegedly blew up the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and
Tanzania in 1998.
The U.S. sent a small number of special operations troops with the
Ethiopian forces in 2006 and in early 2007 conducted several
airstrikes in an attempt to kill suspected al-Qaida members. But the
fact that Ethiopia is a key U.S. ally, and most Somalis loathe
America, doesn't help matters.
Ethiopia itself is a traditional rival of overwhelmingly Muslim
Somalia. It has large Christian and Muslim populations as well as
one of Africa's largest armies, which many Somalis see as abusive
and heavy-handed. Al-Shabab, which means "the Youth," mounts almost
daily mortar attacks, suicide bombings and ambushes.
The result is civilians streaming out of Mogadishu, the capital,
many of them gravely wounded, and sheltering on roadsides or fleeing
the country. A local human rights group says the insurgency has
killed more than 9,000 civilians to date.
The streets of Mogadishu, once a beautiful seaside city, are now
bullet-scarred and stained with blood. On Monday 30 people were
killed in fighting in the capital and at least 11 civilians died
during an overnight attack on an African Union peacekeepers' base in
Mogadishu.
Al-Shabab has taken over the port town of Kismayo, Somalia's
third-largest city, and effectively closed Mogadishu's airport by
threatening to attack any plane using it.
Al-Shabab's attacks look likely continue indefinitely, with the goal
of simply crippling and humiliating the government. Reprisals by
government and Ethiopian forces are swift and heavy-handed, but have
not eradicated the insurgency.
"If your principal interest is quelling the political violence, then
an Ethiopian withdrawal will help," Menkhaus said. "That will take
away the principal grievance."
The African Union has sent about 2,600 peacekeepers to Somalia. But
their mandate is limited to protecting key sites such as the airport
and seaport, and they generally are confined to the airport for
their safety.
The U.N. has tried to push peace talks between the government and
the opposition, but a recent deal with a more moderate faction of
the Islamic group seems only to have worsened the violence.
"We have started building up our military strength because some of
our fellow insurgents seem to have been corrupted by the enemy, like
those who signed the so-called deal with the puppet government,"
said Sheik Muhumed, an al-Shabab commander.
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