THE WIND OF CHANGE: The Arab World in Turmoil

In Tunisia, on December 19th 2010 the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year-old unemp loyed, university graduate became the catalyst that sent shock waves through out the Arab world and Africa. The first causality of this revolution was the 23-year-old authoritarian regime of Zein-Al abedine bin Ali. The police informed the young man to close down his operation because he has no permit to sell fruits and vegetables on the streets of Bouzid- a small town in central Tunisia. Unlike the stubbornness of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Zein-Al abedine bin Ali realised the anger of the masses and he took the first available flight to oblivion, thereby saving his country from disinte gration.

The Tunisian jasmine uprising is the final call for a Neanderthal species of politicians in Africa and  th e Middle East. From the shores of the Atlantic Ocean in West Africa to the Arabian Sea in the East, a clique of septuagenarians and octogenarians has dominated the politics of the region for a long time. Most of them have outlived their productive lives and these tyrants and the tin pot despots maintain a perpetual strangle hold on power through rigged elections. Before these dictators take the final exit, each grooms his heir apparent from among their progeny.

In a continent where the established political culture is resistant to change, let the domino effect spread across the length and the breadth of Africa and the Middle East like a wild bush fire. Where the ballot box fails to bring about the desired political change, then peaceful mass uprising is a very effective means to get the attention of these corrupted regimes. In Tunisia, Egypt, and the rest of the potential candidates for regime change, the masses are frustrated with the quality of their  lea ders as far as delivery of the basic necessities of live are concerned- Employment, social services, health, education, and above all a future of hope.

A number of factors precipitated the current crisis engulfing the Arab world:

1. Constantly changing demographic composition
2. Rampant and out of control corruption
3. Accumulation of illegitimate wealth through nepotism
4. Pervasive among unemployment, especially among the educated youth
5. Sense of alienation from the political process through the lack of political freedoms
6. Change-resistant political culture.


The contemporary political history of Tunisia is a mirror image of a continent-wide phenomenon. Tunisia was a one party state from its independence in 1956 up to the parliamentary elections of 1981. From 1959 to 1974, President Habib Bourguiba used to be the only candidate for office with a turn out of 100%. For the first time, it was during the parliamentary elections of 1994 that a  sem blance of a multi-party system took place- Four opposition parties’ won a total 19 seats out of 163 seats contested. In 1987, Mr. Zein-Abedine bin Ali removed president Bourguiba from office  becau se of advanced age and poor health. From 1987 to his down fall on January 14th 2011, Zein-Alabe dine bin Ali continued the one-man show tradition with an iron fist.

Comparatively, the outcome of the Egyptian situation is rather unpredictable for obvious reasons. The absence of charismatic national leadership acceptable to the demonstrating masses is a  seri ous drawback at this early stage. At the grassroots level, it seems this populist movement  repres ents Egyptians of all walks of life. However, without proper co-ordination the movement might  fiz zle out altogether. The success of the one million-man march through Liberation Square planned for Tuesday February 1st, 2011 will zeal the fate of the Egyptian strongman.

For the past forty years, successive Egyptian regimes played the Muslim Brotherhood card to curry favour with the West. That card is no longer valid because this uprising is not the product of one  p olitical party or a specific ideology. According to the current Egyptian Constitution, the Muslim  Bro therhood is a banned institution. In the parliamentary elections, the candidates of the Brotherhood run under the banner of independents. Therefore, the fear of a turbaned Egyptian Ayatollah, waiti ng in the wings ready to assume the leadership of the country is a rather far-fetched proposition.

The West is facing a true dilemma in this unexpected dynamic flux in the Middle East. The unfolding events leave no room to maneuver as far as external manipulation is concerned. The downtrodden masses have finally broken the taboo of standing up to authoritarian regimes but the incumbent is digging his heels for a long fight. Hosni Mubarak might hold on to power for a few more days, but  the future political landscape of Egypt has irrevocably changed. With a population of 80 million so uls, soaring unemployment, crumbling infrastructure, rising food prices, falling purchasing power, poverty and destitution, and a bleak future a head, the discontent has been brewing over the  ye ars. The Tunisian Jasmine revolution gave it the final push.

On Friday 28th January 2011 Sheikh Yussuf Al-Qardawi sent a chilling message to President Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian Army, and the demonstrators.

To president Mubarak, the Sheikh said, “ If you do not resign, Mr. President, you will incur the wrath and the judgment of theses angry masses.”

To the uprising people, the Sheikh cautioned against looting and vandalism thereby creating lawlessness and anarchy.

To the Egyptian Army, the Sheikh warned against bloodshed on the streets.

Although the communiqué was short, yet it was symbolic of the prevailing national mood.


In conclusion, when authoritarian despots depart, they leave behind economically ruined states and socially polarized societies. Certainly, scores of morally bankrupt TOTALITARIAN IN THE Arab world and Africa are watching the flux situation in Egypt with indignation and apprehension. In an electronically intertwined world, where global events make instantaneous headlines in the evening news, the spontaneity of these popular revolutions is a harbinger of doom for the leaders of Sub-Saharan Africa, where political dinosaurs from 1950’ and 1960’s are still clinging to power.

The Egyptian people deserve a better leadership and hopefully they will find someone who can deli ver them from the impending crisis.